#166 "Putin's Russia is increasingly becoming a totalitarian state"
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Greg Yudin is a sociologist, philosopher and professor at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences. He is one of the most prominent voices of the anti-war protests in Russia. He is writing regularly for the open-democracy and the Russian online magazine Republic.
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Hier eine ins Deutsche übersetzte und gekürzte Version des Interviews mit Greg Yudin:
Während Putins Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine tobt, gehen viele Russinnen und Russen auf die Straße, um gegen die Invasion zu demonstrieren. Tausende wurden seit Beginn der Antikriegsproteste verhaftet. Wie ist die Stimmung gerade in Russland?
Viele Menschen in Russland leugnen noch immer, was in der Ukraine und in unserem eigenen Land los ist. Sie tun immer noch so als wäre das Leben mehr oder weniger wie vor dem Krieg. Aber es gibt erste Risse in diesem vermeintlich normalen Alltag: Lange Schlangen vor den Banken, steigende Preise und Geschäfte, denen die Waren ausgehen. Gleichzeitig haben wir sehr alarmierende Demonstrationen der Natur dieses Regimes. Menschen, die sich gegen den Krieg engagieren, werden bedroht. Einige haben der Z-Buchstabe an der Tür gefunden, der Buchstabe ist ein Symbol für die Unterstützung der Invasion. Es gibt Bilder von Menschenansammlungen in Z-Form. Und es gibt viele Einschüchterungsversuche an Universitäten, Schulen und Arbeitsstellen, die vor einer Teilnahme an den Protesten warnen. Einige Menschen haben bereits das Land verlassen. Also: Leugnung, Angst und Trotz, so würde ich die Stimmung beschreiben.
“Trotz” ist ein gutes Wort, den trotz Einschüchterung und Tausenden Verhaftungen gehen noch immer Menschen gegen den Krieg auf die Straße. Wie groß ist die Antikriegsbewegung in Russland und wer sind die Menschen, die da demonstrieren?
Bei Befragungen am Anfang des Krieges sagten bis zu 25 Prozent der Befragten, dass sie gegen den Krieg sind. Jetzt gehen diese Zahlen zurück. Aber das geht zurück, weil wir uns zunehmend in einem totalitären Staat befinden. Die meisten Demonstranten würde ich zu dem zählen, was ich eine progressive Klasse nenne. Das ist sehr weit gefasst, vermittelt aber die manchmal seltsame Mischung aus Menschen, die auf die eine oder andere Weise in eine globale Gemeinschaft und globale Kultur eingebettet sind. Sie sehen sich als Teil der globalen Ströme, kulturell und wirtschaftlich. Und sie sehen Russland als Teil der globalen Gemeinschaft. Diese Menschen sind tendenziell jünger. Bei den Jungen gibt es eine Spaltung bezüglich der Haltung zum Krieg, während die Älteren die Invasion mit überwältigender Mehrheit unterstützten. Darüber hinaus leben sie eher in Großstädten: Moskau, Sankt Petersburg, aber zum Beispiel auch Nowosibirsk und Irkutsk. All diese Städte haben ziemlich große Antikriegskundgebungen gesehen. Außerdem sind sie tendenziell gebildeter und offensichtlich weniger abhängig von den Informationen der staatlichen Fernsehsender. Und interessanterweise zeigt eine der Studien, dass diejenigen, denen es schlechter geht, eher gegen den Krieg sind. Wahrscheinlich weil sie verstehen, dass sie den Preis mit ihrem Geld, aber auch mit dem Leben ihrer Kinder bezahlen werden. Und eine weitere Sache ist, dass die Bewegung sehr trotzig ist. Mehr als 15.000 Menschen wurden seit Beginn des Krieges bereits inhaftiert.
Was passiert mit Ihnen?
Die meisten von ihnen werden freigelassen. Einige von ihnen wurden zu 5 oder 10 Tagen im Gefängnis verurteilt. Die meisten haben eine Geldbuße erhalten, was für Russland ziemlich milde ist. Aber wir haben auch mehrere Fälle gesehen, in denen die Polizei Personen festgenommen hat, die schwer verprügelt wurden. Und auch von sexuellen Übergriffen seitens der Polizei wird berichtet. Viele Polizisten haben das Gefühl, dass sie jetzt die Lizenz haben, zu tun, was sie wollen. Diese Gewalt ist besorgniserregend, aber bisher hält sie sich in Grenzen. Das ist vielleicht auch einer der Gründe, warum sich fast jeden Tag Menschen auf der Straße gegen den Krieg versammeln. Sie riskieren dabei viel: Nach russischem Recht drohen bei dreimaliger Teilnahme an einer Kundgebung bereits ein Strafverfahren und bis zu fünf Jahre Gefängnis. Und jetzt wurden zusätzlich Gesetze verabschiedet, wonach Menschen, die gegen den Krieg demonstrieren, bis zu 15 Jahre Gefängnis riskieren.
Wenn wir uns dieses Ausmaß an Repression anschauen, was treibt die Teilnehmer*innen der Antikriegsproteste an?
Ich sehe da zwei Gründe: Erstens sind sie verzweifelt. Sie sehen ständig die Bilder aus der Ukraine. Und sie sagen sich, dagegen muss ich etwas tun. Da kann man nicht zu Hause bleiben. Zweitens haben sie das Gefühl, dass es nichts mehr zu verlieren gibt. Denn im Grunde gibt es ihr Land nicht mehr. Alles, was sie in Russland in den letzten Jahren aufgebaut haben, das hört auf zu existieren. Russland soll von der Weltgemeinschaft abgeschnitten werden. Das wollen die Leute nicht schlucken. Und aus diesem Grund sind sie bereit, dieses Risiko einzugehen. Um zu zeigen, dass dieser Krieg nicht in ihrem Namen geschieht. Um den Krieg zu stoppen und das Russland, das sie lieben, zu retten.
Es verlangt viel Mut, in Russland gegen den Krieg auf die Straße zu gehen. Viele Leute sind aber für den Krieg oder passiv aus Verleugnung oder Angst. Also wie ist die Stimmung gegenüber dem Krieg in der allgemeineren Bevölkerung und welche Rolle spielt die staatliche Propaganda?
Nun, die Menschen verstehen oftmals nicht, wie Propaganda funktioniert. Immer wieder höre ich Leute sagen, das Fernsehpublikum sei einfach einer Gehirnwäsche unterzogen worden und nicht bereit, die Wahrheit zu akzeptieren. Das ist falsch. Den Russen wird beigebracht, niemandem zu vertrauen, auch nicht der Propaganda. Was die Propaganda aber meiner Meinung nach macht: Sie versöhnt das Publikum mit ihrer wahrgenommenen Handlungsunfähigkeit. Die Regel Nummer eins für jeden Russen ist, dass es keine Möglichkeit gibt, irgendetwas zu ändern. Nichts hängt von dir ab. Sie sollten niemals versuchen, etwas zu ändern, was auch immer Sie tun. Es könnte die Dinge für sie und für die Menschen um sie herum nur noch schlimmer machen. Propaganda fungiert also im Grunde als Rechtfertigung für Nichthandeln. Es versorgt Menschen mit dem, was sie brauchen, um sich selbst zu erklären, warum sie nicht handeln. Tief im Inneren versteht natürlich ein großer Teil des Fernsehpublikums, dass das alles natürlich Lügen sind. Aber es ist einfach unerträglich zu verstehen, dass Ihr Land einen Krieg gegen ihr Bruderland führt. Denn natürlich sind die Ukrainer unsere Brüder. Und daher kommt die Verleugnung: Für die Menschen ist einfach sehr schwer, damit zu leben, dass sie sofort etwas tun sollten ohne Chance auf Erfolg. Bei den Menschen, die den Krieg im Allgemeinen unterstützen, sehe ich zwei große Gruppen. Die eine von ihnen ist wirklich aggressiv, diese Menschen sind zu allem bereit. Sie sagen, dieser Krieg sollte geführt werden, es ist ein Krieg gegen die Vereinigten Staaten. Diese Menschen schüren auch den Terror in Russland. Die andere Gruppe ist meiner Meinung nach etwas größer. Ihre Unterstützung ist passiv. Das sind Leute, die der Propaganda die Botschaft abkaufen, dass es keinen Krieg gibt, sondern diese “spezielle Militäroperation”. Ich meine, Du musst das verstehen, wenn Du dich einer zufälligen Person auf der Straße näherst und fragst, was Ihre Einstellung zum Krieg ist. Es besteht eine sehr hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Antwort lautet: “Krieg, es gibt keinen Krieg. Russland versucht, einen Krieg zu verhindern. Dies ist eine Operation zur Wiederherstellung des Friedens und zur Vermeidung eines Krieges.” Nun sollte es natürlich ein “Blitzkrieg” werden, eine sehr schnelle Operation, die in drei oder vier Tagen zum Erfolg führen sollte. Das hätte der russischen Regierung die Notwendigkeit erspart, Details zu erklären. Jetzt sehen wir natürlich, dass dies nicht der Fall ist und es gibt bereits einige Risse in dieser größeren Erzählung von einer “Spezialoperation”. Aber die Regierung versteht das auch, denn so erklärt sich die Zunahme von Terror. Das verbreitet Angst unter den Leuten, die passive Unterstützung geleistet haben. Sie müssen jetzt aktiver werden. Und sie reagieren auf verschiedene Weise: Einige werden aggressiver. Während der andere Teil beginnt zu erkennen, dass etwas schief gelaufen ist. Ich kenne Leute, die diese Operation zunächst unterstützen. Jetzt sagen sie mir zumindest, dass Russland nur in Donbass bleiben und die anderen Teile der Ukraine in Ruhe lassen sollte.
Wenn wir uns diese prekäre Situation anschauen. Welche Szenarien für die Antikriegsbewegung und Dein Land im Allgemeinen siehst du in der näheren Zukunft?
Ich denke, ein düsteres Szenario ist sehr wahrscheinlich: Dass sich Russland immer mehr in ein totalitäres Land entwickelt. Wir sind dem bereits sehr nahe: Die Z-Zeichen an Türen, die Massenversammlungen in Z-Form, Vorlesungen für Schulkinder, Putins Sicht über die Ukraine als Teil von Russland erläutern. Die zunehmende Gewalt durch den Staat, die wir erleben. Ich habe Russland vorher nie einen totalitären Staat genannt, sondern ein typisches autoritäres Regime. Aber unser Land steuert in eine sehr gefährliche Richtung. Es könnte sich in ein Land verwandeln, dass Deutschland in den 1930er Jahren sehr ähnelt.
Das besseres Szenario wäre, wenn die progressiven Klassen, die ich erwähnt habe, eine Art Bündnis mit einem Teil der Eliten eingehen. Denn einige Teile der Eliten verlieren durch den Krieg ihren liebgewonnenen Lebensstil. Es könnt also zu einer zeitweisen Allianz zwischen diesen Klassen kommen. Wenn dann noch der Angriff auf die Ukraine weiter stockt. Wenn die Sanktionen von Europa und den Vereinigten Staaten weiter greifen, dann könnte es weitere Risse im System geben. Und dann denke ich, dass dies zu einer Art politischem Moment kommen könnte, wo wir die Bremse ziehen. Denn viele Menschen um mich herum wollen einfach nur die Bremse ziehen und zurück vor den 24. Februar. Einfach erwachen aus diesem Albtraum. Dass es eine solchen Moment der politischen Öffnung gibt, halte ich für unwahrscheinlich. Aber es gibt immer noch eine Chance.
Wenn Du so über das düstere Szenario sprichst, da stellt sich mir die Frage: Hast du selbst schon darüber nachgedacht, aus deinem Heimatland zu fliehen?
Für mich ist klar: Ich werde mich nicht an diesem Krieg beteiligen. Sollte es zu einer Generalmobilmachung kommen, werde ich mich dem entziehen. Darüber hinaus ist die Frage, welche Formen von politischer Betätigung in Russland in Zukunft möglich sind. Sollte es ganz schlimm kommen und Widerstand innerhalb Russlands nicht mehr möglich sein, dann ist die eigentliche Frage, ob ihr einen Widerstand im Exil unterstützt. Einen Widerstand, der ein anderes Russland herbeizuführen versucht. Das sind die Erwägungen von denen eine solche Entscheidung abhängt.
Hoffen wir, dass es nicht so weit kommt, aber ich spreche hier noch einmal für das gesamte Publikum dieses Podcasts: Unsere Solidarität gilt Dir und allen Menschen in Russland, die den Krieg beenden und ein anderes Russland aufbauen wollen. Ich möchte auch noch darüber sprechen, wie wir im Westen die russische Zivilgesellschaft und die demokratische Bewegung unterstützen können. Aber lass uns zuvor nochmal auf das Putin-Regime eingehen. Was könnten Schlüsselfaktoren sein, die für Putin gefährlich werden könnten?
Nun, es gibt eigentlich drei Hauptfaktoren, die beträchtlichen Druck auf sein Regime ausüben. Einer davon ist, dass der Widerstand der Menschen in der Ukraine, der eindeutig unterschätzt wurde. Der zweite ist der Zusammenhalt und die geschlossene Antwort der globalen Gemeinschaft auf die Invasion, auch das hat Putin so nicht erwartet. Und dann ist da die Sturheit der Kriegsgegner in Russland, die trotz der Repression gegen die russische Zivilgesellschaft im Vorfeld der Invasion auf die Straße gehen. Das sind also drei Faktoren, die Putin in die Enge treiben könnten. Natürlich wird er in dieser Situation extrem gefährlich.
Wenn wir für eine bessere Zukunft kämpfen wollen, müssen wir verstehen, wie wir in diese Situation gekommen sind. Was sind aus deiner Sicht die Gründe dafür, das Putin die Ukraine überfallen hat? Sind es imperiale Fantasien, Angst vor Demokratisierung in der Nachbarschaft und bei sich oder Angst vor der NATO-Osterweiterung, wie er selbst behauptet.
Ich denke, all diese Dinge treffen zu. Man muss verstehen, dass sich Putin in der Defensive befindet. Er fühlt sich wirklich bedroht. Er hat Angst so wie Gaddafi zu enden. Gaddafi war mit einer Volksbewegung konfrontiert, die er brutal unterdrückt hat. Dann hat die NATO eine Flugverbotszone durchgesetzt und das Blatt wendete sich. Auch Putin sieht sich Widerstand der Bevölkerung gegenüber. Auch in Russland stand ein Volksaufstand bevor, genauso wie in Belarus. Die beiden Länder sind sich sehr ähnlich. In dieser Phase hatte er Angst vor der militärischen Kooperation der Ukraine mit den Amerikanern.
Mir scheint ja eher, dass ihm die Demokratisierung in der Ukraine im Zuge des Euromaidan 2014 Angst gemacht hat, weniger die militärische Kooperation mit der NATO.
Ja, klar. Aber das begann früher. Es begann 2004 als seine Berater bereits versuchten, Janukowitsch zu stützen und dieser verlor. Und 2014 beim Euromaidan war Putin gerade stark genug, zu glauben, dass das nicht zum zweiten Mal passieren sollte. Wir müssen die Ukraine unter Kontrolle halten. Selenski kooperierte militärisch dann enger mit den Amerikanern. Das ist aus Putins Sicht die Hauptgefahr: Dass es ein gegnerisches politisches Regime gibt, das durch militärische Mittel abgesichert ist. Das bedeutet, dass diese Art von Regime nicht einfach zerstört werden kann. Das hat ihn veranlasst, jetzt zuzuschlagen, bevor die Ukraine de facto Teil des Militärbündnisses NATO ist. In seiner Wahrnehmung ist es eine Situation existenzieller Bedrohung. Es ist ein Krieg aus der Defensive heraus, aber es ist natürlich ein imperialer Krieg. Es ist ein defensiver Imperialismus. Und was ich deutlich sagen möchte: Es wird nicht bei der Ukraine enden, wenn Putin es schafft, sich die Ukraine einzuverleiben. Die baltischen Staaten und Polen sind ebenfalls in Gefahr. Putin führt einen Krieg gegen die Ukraine, aber er führt auch einen Krieg gegen den Westen.
Dieser defensive Imperialismus und die Konfrontation mit der liberalen Nachkriegsordnung, wo haben sie ihre ideologischen Wurzeln? Ich denke an Denker wie Alexander Dugin, der eine autoritäre imperiale Idee eines imaginierten “Eurasiens” gegen westliche Werte setzt. Wen oder was lesen Putin und seine Gefolgsleute?
Es ist wirklich schwierig zu wissen, was Putin und Leute um ihn herum lesen. Es ist ein sehr enger Kreis. Putin selbst sitzt in einem Bunker und es gibt nur eine begrenzte Anzahl von Leuten, die ihn sehen. Dugin hat wohl etwas Einfluss, aber das darf nicht überschätzt werden. Ich denke eher an Ivan Ilyin, ein russischer Philosoph und Emigrant, der ein Bewunderer des Faschismus wurde. Sein Denken ist eine sehr seltsame Mischung aus Imperialismus, Faschismus und Eurasianismus. Putin verherrlicht vor allem die russische Geschichte und die Idee eines “historischen Russlands”. Das geht von Gott weiß wann bis zu ihm geht. Und was jetzt auf dem Spiel steht, ist ein Schicksal dieses historischen Russlands. Und die Ukraine ist in diesem Denken kein eigenes Land, sondern gehört zu Russland.
Ja, es ist wirklich traurig und ekelhaft zu sehen, dass die Ukrainer jetzt wegen dieser imperialen Vision leiden müssen. Das bringt mich zu der Frage, glauben Sie, dass die Menschen hier im Westen Putin und seine Ideologie unterschätzt haben? Vor allem unter der westlichen Linken gibt es noch immer Teile, die im US-Imperialismus den Hauptgegner sehen. Was bedeutet da Putins Invasion für den Antimilitarismus und Antiimperialismus der Linken?
Die Haltung, beide Seiten zu beschuldigen, darin steckt wohl Wahrheit, aber es machte die Linke impotent. Der US-Imperialismus und der russische Imperialismus sind verschieden. Auf die Nato lässt sich öffentlicher Druck ausüben, auf jemanden wie Putin nicht. Putins Imperialismus ist gefährlicher. Und eine Sache, die ich betonen möchte, ist, dass Putins Imperialismus ein Produkt der neoliberalen Weltordnung ist, die Ende des 20. und Anfang des 21. Jahrhunderts errichtet wurde. Er versteht diese Welt so gut. Er ist sich absolut sicher, dass die Menschen gierig sind und alles gekauft und verkauft werden kann. Und deshalb war er in der Lage, europäische und amerikanische Eliten zu korrumpieren. Die Linke sollte also einfach ihre Augen öffnen für die Tatsache, dass Putin ein Produkt dieses Systems ist, der Höhepunkt dieses Systems. Es hat ihn auch noch gefüttert, als alle wussten wie gefährlich er ist. Ich denke, was wir jetzt tun müssen, sind populare Bewegungen aufzubauen. Wir müssen die Ukrainer im Widerstand unterstützen, die Menschen in Belarus. Und die Menschen in Russland, die Widerstand leisten. Wir brauchen eine klare und nüchterne Beurteilung der Situation: Der Krieg in der Ukraine ist kein lokaler Konflikt. Ich kenne viele, viele Menschen, die immer noch bereit sind, ihn als einen hässlichen postsowjetischen Konflikt zu betrachten. Aber es ist kein lokaler Konflikt, es wird dort nicht enden. Der Krieg in der Ukraine ist eine große Bedrohung für die gesamte Welt. Eine Bedrohung, die die Welt seit Jahrzehnten nicht gesehen hat. Und die Linke muss sich diesen Herausforderungen stellen.
Neben der unmittelbaren Hilfe für die Ukrainer*innen. Was sind aus deiner Sicht Möglichkeiten der internationalen Solidarität? Ich denke zum Beispiel an die Zivilgesellschaft in Russland.
Ja, das ist eine gute Frage. Ich denke, dass wir Verbindungen zwischen den Zivilgesellschaften oder den Menschen herstellen müssen. Das fehlt uns im Grunde genommen schon so lange: eine internationale Bewegung. Die Situation jetzt ist vergleichbar mit dem Jahr 1914. Und 1914 gab es im Unterschied zu heute eine internationale Bewegung. Uns fehlte diese internationale Bewegung. Und das machte es autoritären Regimen so einfach. Sie müssen sich nur die eigene Gesellschaft unterdrücken. Wir müssen darüber nachdenken, wie wir diese internationale Bewegung herstellen können. Eine Bewegung, die, das möchte ich betonen, Menschen in Russland und Belarus einschließen sollte. Die Situation jetzt wird nicht gut ausgehen für Russland, schreckliche Veränderungen deuten sich an. Und natürlich macht mich das traurig. Aber Russland wird nicht verschwinden. Deshalb ist es jetzt schon an der Zeit, darüber nachzudenken, wie es dazu kam, dass Russland ein Nährboden für diese Art von Regime für diese Art von Bedrohung wurde. Und welche Maßnahmen wir in Zukunft ergreifen müssen, um Russland wirklich in die Weltgemeinschaft einzubeziehen.
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DOS-88 – City Lights: https://youtu.be/egKdVELkKVI
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00:00:00: We already have more than 15,000 people detained since the start of the war
00:00:06: but almost every day we have people on the streets because they're desperate I mean they keep seeing those pictures from Ukraine and they think they have to demonstrate that it is not done in their name and they want to stop it.
00:00:21: Even those who used to be like completely deeply incised are now only thinking about putting the breaks we have to get away from this nightmare.
00:00:29: Music.
00:00:36: Hey guys thank you all for tuning into your weekly descends podcast.
00:00:40: In this week's episode I'm joined by a very special guest by Greg yudin who is one of the most prominent voices of the Russian anti-war protests.
00:00:48: Greg uden is a sociologist philosopher and professor at the Moscow school of Social and economic Sciences.
00:00:53: And we're going to talk about Putin's Invasion but also about the prospects of the anti-war movement in Russia.
00:00:59: Greg thank you so much for being on the show thank you for having me Greg you're part of an anti-war movement that has emerged in Russia since Putin has started his invasion
00:01:08: last week and again thousands of Russians took to the streets to protest against Putin's War hundreds were arrested you yourself have been arrested previously,
00:01:17: maybe you can tell us a bit about what's the situation and the atmosphere like in Russia.
00:01:21: Well I think a lot of people are still pretty much in denial on what is going on with our own country but I was also with Ukraine and also with Belarus.
00:01:34: People still pretend that the life is more or less as usual.
00:01:40: Except of course the long lines at Banks and if you want Francis to the withdraw currency it is limited
00:01:49: and those problems with the bank's the rising prices and some places stores are running out of goods those are the first cracks
00:02:00: in these stable everyday life that Russians are used to but mostly I think still everyone pretends or not everyone but a lot of people pretend to leave,
00:02:12: like they used to and of course at the same time you have a lot of people who are fleeing the country because of the fears of martial law.
00:02:20: And the same time you have some very very alarming demonstrations of the nature of this regime and the people who are threatened by the Secret Service is by the authorities some of those people,
00:02:35: find the Z letters on their doors and the Z ladder of course is assemble of this invasion.
00:02:43: Is painted on part of Russian military vehicles which are now in Ukraine and this is used widely inside Russia as a military style so you find those Z,
00:02:55: letters from the doors.
00:02:57: You will see people students or civil servants who are forced to do this oscillations to assemble in the shape of the z letter
00:03:09: and you will find of course a lot of intimidation and a lot of pressure in the University's in the schools
00:03:17: the working place is warning people about the consequences if they participate in anti-war rallies but also
00:03:26: instructing them about the causes behind this operation so I will generally,
00:03:31: rev it up saying that this is some sort of mix of denial fear and Defiance yeah well defines as a good word I guess because it takes courage to protest the war right now in Russia,
00:03:43: Creek can you tell us a bit more about the anti-war protest itself who is part of this anti-war movement and how big is it actually.
00:03:51: Well the first pulse taken immediately after the war started
00:03:58: indicated that up to 25 percent of respondents were opposed to this war
00:04:05: now these numbers going down but this is going down because we are increasingly in a totalitarian state and of course under these conditions.
00:04:14: The numbers snow they make sense or in some people flee some people are silenced but those two and twenty five percent they are
00:04:22: mostly I would say what I would call a progressive Class A Very broad term perhaps but it conveys,
00:04:31: sometimes a strange mix of the people who are in one way or another embedded in a global community and Global culture.
00:04:38: They are part of the global cultural flows global economic flows so they basically see Russia as part of the global Community they tend to be younger.
00:04:48: And according to the same polls there's a split among the young people on the attitude to this military operation whereas the the elderly overwhelmingly supported
00:05:00: in addition to being younger that tend to be more concentrated in big cities,
00:05:06: like most concerned Petersburg but also novosibirsk akkadian Borg irkutsk all these cities have seen pretty large anti-war rallies,
00:05:16: these people tend to be more educated and obviously they tend to be less dependent on the TV channels.
00:05:24: Because the TV audience is of course overwhelmingly supporting any action undertaken by the government
00:05:33: yeah and interestingly one of the studies demonstrates that those who are worse off are more likely to be against this work probably because they understand that they will pay the price with the money but also with the lives of their children,
00:05:47: you're another thing that I could add about this movement as it is pretty stubborn.
00:05:52: We already have more than 15,000 people detained since the start of the war 15,000 is that so crazy what happens to those people yeah 15,000 the most of them were released after that some of them were a sentence to like 5 or 10 days in jail most of them were simply find
00:06:11: which is relatively soft for Russia but we have also seen several occasions when the police stations people who are heavily beaten up
00:06:22: and even sexually assaulted
00:06:24: so that happened to raise several times and from what we have heard from those police officers who are working this violence they feel like they now have license to do whatever they want to do.
00:06:37: But still these sort of violence I mean it's very very concerning but it seems to be limited.
00:06:43: And for that reason perhaps people on the streets keep Gathering almost every day now it tends to focus mainly on Sundays.
00:06:53: But almost every day we have people on the streets they're being detained they are being fined and well basically they face the risk of criminal prosecution
00:07:04: because according to Russian laws if you participate in a rally three times it's already criminal case and it's up to 5 years in prison.
00:07:12: And now we have additional laws passed by the Parliament and signed by the president According to which you risk up to 15 and 20 years in prison well,
00:07:22: honestly I don't remember what for but the idea is that if you are against the war and you demonstrate that,
00:07:28: when we look at the level of repression that we're seeing now by state authorities in Russia what's your explanation Greg for why are so many Russians still willing to risk so much in order to protest the war
00:07:39: so they taking those serious risks well for two reasons I think one of them is.
00:07:46: Because they're desperate I mean the keep seeing those pictures from Ukraine and the things that something should be should be done immediately something has to be done they have to do something they can stay home and the other reason
00:07:59: is that we feel like there's nothing left to lose basically that our country is no more
00:08:06: that's everything we have invested in Russia everything we were trying to build in Russia
00:08:12: and honestly build quite a lot could have done better of course on the better conditions but still it ceases to exist because Russia is supposed to be cut off from the global community
00:08:24: and that's the sort of thing that these people find very difficult to swallow and for that reason they are willing to take those risks to go out on the streets.
00:08:34: And basically having no hope no hope for real support from abroad nobody would step up for them but is still willing to demonstrate.
00:08:44: That it is not done in their name and they want to stop it to save Russia they love.
00:08:51: Yeah obviously it's fucking Brave what you and everybody in the anti-war movement is doing in Russia so solitary to goes out to you guys,
00:08:58: but talk a bit more Greg about the parts of the population that are actively supporting the war or that are passive out of fear or denial so what's the sentiment towards the war in the more general population and what role does the state propaganda play.
00:09:13: Well people sound X misapprehend how Russian propaganda works.
00:09:19: I often hear people saying well the TV audience is simply brainwashed and not willing to accept the truth this is not simply about being brainwashed
00:09:31: actually Russians are taught very well not to trust anyone including of course the propaganda.
00:09:38: So people might be very skeptical of the propaganda
00:09:43: but one thing propaganda does and this is the most important thing I guess is that it reconciles the audience with the inability to act.
00:09:55: Was the rule number one for any Russian is there is no possible way you can change anything nothing depends on you,
00:10:05: you should never ever try changing anything whatever you do might only make things worse for you and for people around you and for the rest,
00:10:15: so basically propaganda functions as justifications for not acting.
00:10:23: It provides people with with what they need to explain to themselves why they are not acting.
00:10:30: Deep inside of course major part of this TV audience understands that these are of course lies.
00:10:38: But it is simply unbearable to understand that your country is waging a war on your brother's basically because ukrainians of course our brothers and Russians keep believing that.
00:10:49: So it is like psychologically mentally it is much easier to deny this to use all the propaganda feeds you to deny These reality,
00:11:00: and to stick to this picture provided by the state TV,
00:11:05: and this is where the denial comes from because it's just very difficult for a human being to beer to live with.
00:11:13: That you should be doing something immediately without any single chance to succeed,
00:11:20: so there I think is the ground for denial.
00:11:24: Now speaking of those who tend to generally support the actions of the government I think it can be divided into two big groups one of them is really aggressive
00:11:38: these group is willing to have this is a war a war should be waged this is a war against the United States and it has to be taken to the end.
00:11:46: This is a very aggressive group it can be aggressive both externally and internally it fuels the terror inside the country.
00:11:55: While the other group I think might be a bit larger and limits itself to some sort of passive support
00:12:01: those are people who are buying the the message from the propaganda that there is no war there's this special military operation
00:12:09: I mean you have to understand that that if you approach some random person on the street asking what's your attitude to war
00:12:17: there's a very high chance that the answer would be what war there is no war,
00:12:21: what Russia is doing is basically trying to prevent a war this is an operation to restore peace and to avoid war,
00:12:28: so these people are willing to succumb to this message,
00:12:33: to give some passive support to the actions president and African military.
00:12:41: Now of course it was supposed to be a blitzkrieg very quick operation should result in success in three or four days.
00:12:51: We have spared Russian government of necessity to explain details now of course we understand that this is not the case
00:13:00: and there are already some cracks in this larger Narrative of special operation
00:13:06: but the government also understands that and the for we have this increase in Terror installing fear and these people who used to provide some passive support,
00:13:17: they are now required to become more active.
00:13:20: And they're reacting in various ways and see some of them are willing to agree and become more aggressive indeed because that once again it helps them to preserve their mental stability.
00:13:35: Whereas the other part starts realizing that something went wrong
00:13:39: actually I know some people who are initially in support of this operation but just today the back to me saying
00:13:49: well now it looks like indeed there is only support for Russia in donbas and and try me and we should probably leave the other parts of Ukraine as they are.
00:14:01: So when you look at this precarious situation we have like change of attitudes towards a one on one end but also like growing repression and state Terror as you described it what kind of scenarios do you see for the Russian anti-war movement and the Russian Society in general in the near future
00:14:16: I think the darkest scenario is very likely it is transforming into full-scale totality reinstate.
00:14:23: And I think we are very very close to that what I mentioned those see signs on the doors those Mass gatherings in Z shape.
00:14:32: The lectures given to school kids basically explain the content of Putin's speech on the history of Ukraine.
00:14:41: Some episodes of violence that I've already mentioned yeah and perhaps one additional thing that is very very concerning is this densification narrative they're only emerged with the start of this war.
00:14:55: The reason I think it is particularly alarming is that basically it provides you with absolute justification for whatever you do on the Ukrainian soil.
00:15:06: And all those things together I will those things combined I think indicate a very very dangerous direction for the country
00:15:14: basically transforming its into a state which would be very very
00:15:18: close to Germany in the 1930s I mean I find increasingly more similarities it was never the case before I never called Russia totalitarian States or just a typical authoritarian regime,
00:15:31: now it gets much closer to the German of the 30s.
00:15:34: Speaking of a better scenario the progressive classes that are mentioned that are certainly unhappy with the war some of them for like more reasons other form a for economic reasons those things make combined
00:15:47: of course many people realize that they are losing a lot in this war without any clear perspective of gaining anything.
00:15:55: So those Progressive classes might establish some sort of alliance with part of the elites.
00:16:02: Because of these part of the elites of course is also now losing their lifestyle so that might be a some sort of temporary alliance between those classes.
00:16:10: And if there is no.
00:16:13: Military area advance in Ukraine no major victory in Ukraine if those retaliation measures taken by Europe and the United States
00:16:23: keep acting as immediate destruction of the lifestyle for these people and if there are some cracks
00:16:31: in the elites then I think this could turn into some sort of political subject capable of pulling the brakes
00:16:38: because a lot of people around me even those who used to be like completely deeply incised are now only thinking about putting the brakes,
00:16:48: just stop that we wanted to go on as it used to be before February 24th we have to get away from this nightmare.
00:16:59: This attitude among those people who have resources who have understanding the educated they have something to lose.
00:17:07: Might at some point translate into some sort of political action.
00:17:12: I don't hold this scenario for basic but there is still possibility given the difficulties this military operation run into.
00:17:22: Crack when you're saying the darker scenario is more likely have you yourself ever thought about fleeing from your home country and of course you only have to answer if you want to,
00:17:30: I mean to me I have actually two considerations about that one of them is that I'm not going to fight this war for putting anyway this is a betrayal of my country
00:17:39: and I'm not going to participate in this war and that means that I have to avoid my bill ization
00:17:44: the duration number two is we have to understand what are the opportunities for some sort of political action from the inside and from the outside if indeed the worst things start happening
00:17:54: if there is basically no room for any sort of meaningful resistance from the inside then the question for me actually is
00:18:03: whether you guys are ready to support some sort of resistance from the outside some sort of political activism political thinking from Russia which should Endeavor to bring about different Russia
00:18:16: to understand to explain to the people what happened to Russia over those last 20 mm mm maybe 30 years.
00:18:24: And to support the reconfiguration of Russia and those are the things that way in right now when making this.
00:18:32: Let's hope that it doesn't go that far but again I'm speaking for the whole audience of this podcast here I was solidarity goes out to you and all the people that want to put Rush on a better path.
00:18:41: I'd like to talk to you about how we in the West can support the Russian Civil Society and the Democratic movement.
00:18:48: But first crack regarding the Putin regime could you tell us a bit more about possible tipping points where Putin and his regime could lose power.
00:18:56: You already mentioned external factors like the resistance of ukrainians and Western sanctions but also internal factors like the growing unrest with the invasion.
00:19:04: So what are the key factors that could become dangerous for Putin.
00:19:08: Well I think there are actually three and you just mentioned them there are three main factors that are putting considerable pressure on to his regime.
00:19:18: One of them is the resistance from ukrainians was clearly underestimated.
00:19:23: Down there is the cohesion and your unified response from the global community.
00:19:29: Also very likely underestimated and then there is the stubbornness of those protesting.
00:19:36: Also perhaps somewhat underestimated because we've seen some pre-emptive measures taken before The Invasion to suppress the organization.
00:19:46: But that measures definitely were not enough and now we're seeing just a quick steps taken to retaliate to stop that there's a lot of,
00:19:54: I want to talk about how to stop spreading fakes and buy fake system and of course any sort of alternative information about what's going on in Ukraine
00:20:04: the concern about those so-called fakes already demonstrates that the information War even the Russian soil is not going well,
00:20:12: so those are three factors that could put put in in a precarious situation
00:20:18: and honestly I don't know what are the prospects here because
00:20:23: well from the military Viewpoint I'm not a military analyst of course but the fact that the initial plan failed you should play enough taken
00:20:32: Kiev in three days and have a nap parade there with ukrainians and breaching Russian soldiers with flowers which completely delusional that plane failed but it doesn't mean that he has no plan B
00:20:44: and the pain B apparently is grinned in Ukrainian cities.
00:20:49: And Preston Ukrainian government agreeing people into some sort of concessions that might work.
00:20:56: I don't know if Putin has enough time to do that we still don't know if he has enough money enough resources to do that so that is one big if.
00:21:06: Another big if it's the response from the global Community will be as coherent as it was for this several weeks.
00:21:16: Well imagine he steps up with this nuclear blackmail what would be the reaction of the global community.
00:21:24: Wanted want to trade Ukraine for some sort of imagined safety or at least preventing World War 3
00:21:33: and then as I mentioned the third Factor whether those groups protesting in Russia yeah would be affected enough to start thinking of some sort of
00:21:45: interaction and that's also far from being clear because many people are leaving the country
00:21:51: and that of course makes his anti-war movement weaker
00:21:56: but yet another important thing is that it can only work if these you know this lifestyle
00:22:04: changes rapidly drastically swiftly,
00:22:08: because the idea that Russians will start suffering from economic downfall gradually and that will eventually lead them on the streets.
00:22:17: That's not going to happen but losing their lifestyle might be a factor and these three factors combined.
00:22:25: I guess might make Putin really corner of course he becomes extremely dangerous in this situation but at some point I think there could be some sort of opening in this situation.
00:22:38: Krieg also wanted to ask you what you think brought us into the situation because I think in order to think about a better future we have to understand how this work came about.
00:22:49: When it comes to the causes of the invasion what are Putin's motivations is it some kind of new imperialism some fear of democratization and neighboring countries but also within his own country.
00:23:01: Or the fear of NATO pushing for the east as he claims so what's your perspective on that I guess all these things actually apply one has to understand that this is a defensive worth putting the he's on the defensive.
00:23:15: He really feels threatened and this is an existing social threat what exactly is afraid of well you have to recall the fate of column Gaddafi.
00:23:27: And we know that Putin was very very disturbed by the extremely disturbed by the pictures of Gaddafi being killed
00:23:36: so what happened to Qaddafi Qaddafi actually face some sort of popular movement against him decided at some point to suppress it brutally
00:23:46: and what's going to do that he had enough military capabilities for doing that.
00:23:51: And then what was NATO imposing this no-fly zone and turning the table,
00:23:56: this is precisely the scenario that putting ones to avoid when he faces this popular resistance and there is no doubt about that I mean he's been losing support because people are increasingly tired of him and Russia particularly the younger Generations.
00:24:11: So some sort of popular Uprising was imminent in Russia just as happened in Belarus and those in Russia we are very similar in terms of political culture.
00:24:20: Now imagine he has this regime nearby in a culturally very close country and then he has this regime which is militarily,
00:24:30: supported by the Americans what would be its options on a domestic front what would be his options when this surprising happens.
00:24:40: What do you be threatened at this crucial Moment by some sort of cursive action coming from this neighbouring country.
00:24:48: So that was a big question and booty was increasingly seen Ukraine sleep anyway from Russian influence okay but from my perspective that slipping away of influence seems to have manifested itself more and ukrainians wanting to be closer to Europe
00:25:03: becoming more democratic like in the Euro might on Uprising not so much in NATO Ukrainian military lines
00:25:10: yeah I mean it started to earlier it started in 2004 when he already had his advisors trying to prop up Yanukovych.
00:25:20: During this disputed election of 2004 and they lost you should covid-19.
00:25:26: And in 2014 Putin was just strong enough to believe that that should not happen for the second time.
00:25:34: We have to keep Ukraine under control.
00:25:37: And now that you have zalenski in office who increasingly cooperates with the Americans on the military front.
00:25:46: So the main danger for putting is this military cooperation because if there is a political regime secure and guaranteed by military means.
00:25:54: It means that the type of regime cannot be just demolished
00:25:57: and these increasing cooperation that Julian's get started I guess in 2020 and 2021 it made clear for putting that if he wants to prevent Ukraine from sliding away he has to do it now
00:26:11: right now that's the last point to do that to decide the fate of Ukraine it will be too late just in one years or two because the American Military presence would be
00:26:20: just too large and it was realized in Moscow that Ukraine becomes a de facto member of NATO alliance without being admitted into it.
00:26:30: Now that puts him into a situation of perceived existential threat that has to be resolved immediately.
00:26:37: And I think the military operation well it was to certain stand being planned for many years already but one of the final phases of preparation started in 2020 with this constitutional reform that effectively turned Russia into elector monarchy.
00:26:51: And then in 2021 of course the final decisions were taken so this is a defensive War but it is of course an Imperial War,
00:26:59: he's a defensive imperialism and imperialism exerted out of this defensive posture and one thing I want to make very clear is that it is not going to end in Ukraine.
00:27:11: No way if putting is allowed to swallow Ukraine it is not going to end there,
00:27:18: well first of all of course we have where you have Moldova on the military plans of the current operation,
00:27:23: they will be definitely an invasion in Moldova in this operation if it's not stop.
00:27:29: And then putting has already made it clear that he wants a complete withdrawal of the NATO troops from the countries of the former Eastern Bloc which makes Poland and Baltic states immediately in danger.
00:27:44: I mean I was seeing this were coming for two years already.
00:27:48: But it became completely obvious to me that it is inevitable in some of the last year.
00:27:56: When he published this piece about Ukraine basically claiming that Ukraine has to be under Russian influence one way or another as nothing to discuss.
00:28:05: And in this very article he has the idea that Poland is evil and Poland is a constant threat to Russia.
00:28:14: There is no doubt to me that solent is is next in line and the way the Russian military commandant is planning this word has been planning this for for a very very long time.
00:28:25: And the way they serious war of course they're not Waging War against Ukraine they simply don't believe Ukraine exist still at this point they don't believe Ukraine and ukrainians exist.
00:28:34: The original war on the west and Ukraine is obviously only a first step in this.
00:28:41: I wonder Greg if you can tell us a bit more in what kind of thinking what kind of ideology this defensive imperialism has its roots.
00:28:49: I'm thinking about thinkers like Alexander Dugan who proposed a kind of ultra-nationalist but also Imperial idea of an imagined Eurasia that supposed to the liberal post-second World War order.
00:29:02: It says put in a circle reading Alexander dug-in or someone else you know it's really difficult to know what Putin people around him what they are reading.
00:29:10: Because this is a very very close Circle putting seeds himself in Bunker and there's just a very very limited number of people who saw him for several years already.
00:29:19: Dugan is actually influential among some Elite circles I would at the same time underlying that he was politically not very successful.
00:29:33: His time was in 2014 because his ideas were used during this exaction campaign
00:29:39: but very soon after that he was dismissed from the Department of Sociology of the Moscow State University and I think his influence even though it is definitely there.
00:29:50: Might be a little bit exaggerated if you want to to think of some ideological influence and Putin I think you'd better read evenly in.
00:29:59: Russian emigre Russian philosopher who later become an admirer of fascism.
00:30:06: And this is a sort of like very weird mix of imperialism fascism also eurasianism.
00:30:14: The glorification of Russian history within actually relies a lot on that including he is crazy doctrine that there is some sort of historical Russia.
00:30:26: Which goes from God knows when through even the terrible period rate starting and then write all the way to put it,
00:30:35: and what is at stake now is a fate of this historical Russia.
00:30:40: So I think you've only in might be and he he mentioned alien many times and actually a lot of muss crazy things here saying.
00:30:49: Can be found in Aliens right.
00:30:52: And it's really sad and really disgusting to see that ukrainians have now to suffer because of this Imperial Vision that someone like Putin has of Russia as a nation.
00:31:01: That brings me to the question do you think that people here in the west have underestimated that historical path or Mission that Putin sees himself on.
00:31:10: Especially the Western left some on the left still seem to have difficulty coming to terms with the reality of Russian imperialism still blaming mostly us imperialism so what mistakes have been made from your perspective in the past by the Western.
00:31:25: And what does Putin's Invasion mean for the anti-militarism and anti-imperialism of the left.
00:31:31: What I think this General posture of blaming both sides even though it has a merit of having a lot of.
00:31:41: A lot of Truth in that but it effectively made the left important.
00:31:47: Because politics is not about making judgment I mean if you've is about making judgments then of course you're right of course NATO is an aggressive military block and as a Russian I mean I never thought that expanding to to the east was it was a good idea.
00:32:01: But it's not about making judgments about action and if it is about action then you finally have to give up on this focus on the American imperialism.
00:32:13: Because they're different sorts of imperialism and at these Point forgive me but these sort of imperialism that is coming from pudding is much more dangerous
00:32:22: and one thing I would like to emphasize is that it is not some sort of like alternative imperialism it is the same imperialism.
00:32:31: Putin is the product of the neoliberal world.
00:32:36: Yeah of the neighbor neoliberal Society built in the late 20th and early 21st century.
00:32:42: His he's just so skilled in mastering it.
00:32:48: He understands very well how to behave in this Society understands the motivation of the people he's completely sure that people are greedy and everything can be bought and sold.
00:32:58: And this is why he was able to corrupt European and American Elites
00:33:02: the needs of over the world so the left should simply open up its eyes on the very fact that Putin is a product of this system the Pinnacle of this system
00:33:13: it has raised him in his fat him up until the very end when was already very very clear how dangerous he was.
00:33:21: Steal a lot of significant part of the elites of the world was playing this business only nothing personal dangerous game so I think from this position
00:33:33: what should be done right now is support for popular movements support to the people.
00:33:41: The people the active people Ukraine they are not resisting the people in Belarus were resisting for two years already they have to be supported.
00:33:49: The people in Russia who are resistant have to be supported.
00:33:53: First and foremost of course ukrainians qualified in this terrible War but in order for that to happen I think one thing that should be done immediately and it is a major obstacle to already collection is.
00:34:08: Clear and sober judgment on the situation I mean clear and sober appraisal of the situation.
00:34:14: This is not a local conflict I know many many people who are still willing to think of it as an ugly post-soviet conflict
00:34:21: it'll be resolved one way or another it is not a local conflict it is not going to end there it is a great threat to the whole plant a threat that the plant hasn't seen for decades.
00:34:36: And maybe even never in human history because of the the nuclear arms of course this is a major challenge
00:34:42: and the left of course has to live up to those challenges
00:34:48: and to think of what are the possible actions rather than making those empty judgments sometimes those actions might require coordination and cooperation with the organizations or people who left doesn't like
00:35:04: and for good reason like NATO for instance but at least you can observe some sort of popular pressure needed.
00:35:11: It is completely impossible to exert any popular pressure and put it.
00:35:15: And for that reason I think we have to be very clear about the challenges and stick to what it's really
00:35:23: but it's really important to us to stick to defending the popular resistance to this threat.
00:35:30: Yeah I totally agreed the immediate support of ukrainians resisting Putin's invasion is super important but I wonder Greg what other possibilities of international solidarity do you see.
00:35:41: Especially regarding the fate of civil society and Democratic opposition in Russia.
00:35:45: Yeah that's a good question I think right now some sort of links should be established because basically what we've been lacking for so so long.
00:35:55: Are the links between the Civil Societies or the people lie actually the international movement mean we basically to certain standing in 1914 situation now.
00:36:05: And in 1914 at least there was an international movement
00:36:09: we were lacking these International movement for decades and this is what made those tragical regime so efficient because they only had to deal with their own societies and not with some sort of international incident so right now.
00:36:21: We have to think of how these International movement
00:36:24: should be establishing how Russians and belarusians once again I stress that should be included in this moment what are the ways to support it what are the ways to help them
00:36:36: and I think that this is an important resource we have for the global Community the Civil Society in Russian of course it has to be supported yet another thing and that would probably be my last point.
00:36:48: Is that this is not going to end well for Russia let us know scenario this is this is going to involve my.
00:36:55: And of course I'm terribly disappointed about that but that's just I mean there's no good solution for Usher here.
00:37:02: And Russia is a virtue of some major and I'm afraid terrible changes.
00:37:10: But he's not going to disappear anyway.
00:37:13: There will be another rush and I think it is already time to start thinking of how did it happen that Russia became a soil this sort of regime for this sort of threat,
00:37:24: and what are the measures to be taken in future in order to really include Russia into in the global community.
00:37:34: Greg thank you so so much for joining me on the dissens podcast and we wish you all the best thank you Lucas.
00:37:40: Music.